Supernova 2007: because technology is everyone's business

Friday, June 23, 2006

The Next Five Billion Users

What happens when connectivity ramps up in the developing world? Here’s what these panelists had to say:

Dan Shine, AMD
Rajesh Jain, Netcore
Lyn Jeffery, Institute for the Future

AMD: 50x15.com is a rolling odometer for internet adoption. We’re not going to reach 50% of the world until 2030. That’s not acceptable. There is no one solution. AMD is partnering with others to bring technology to the people who need it.

Netcore: In Bombay India, there are 40 million internet users. The government target is to get 10 million broadband users by 2008. The monthly spend is about $5/month for 256K connectivity. Looking ahead to what is required in India, broadband isn’t being deployed fast enough by the government owned telcos. Most of the investment is going into mobile. To get to the mass market, the mobile phones can be deployed with GPRS. Also, if we can network computers with thin clients in education and mid-sized businesses, they can make a small payment for connectivity. Netcore is working on building out a mobile internet. We need to have a $100 price point for the device and a $5 to $10 price point for services. We need to make the access device as simple and manageable as possible.

IFTF: Studying the Chinese internet from a cultural point of view, we can think of the Chinese internet as an alternate Internet (from the English language/American Internet). The state owned media are much slower at info gathering and content delivery. There is more emphasis on mobile devices than PCs. Youth usage is different, while they’re preoccupied studying to get into college. In China there are more than 100 million internet users, with 64 million on broadband. You see the Chinese internet showing up on Technorati, with a Chinese blog ranking No. 1. Sina.com is the biggest portal. Baidu is the leading search engine. One service lets users create play lists and search for MP3 files, a main driver of use. People can become popular on the Internet quite quickly, like the Backdorm Boys video.

Q: Are we seeing the emergence of a global internet culture, or will the internet replicate cultural differences?

IFTF: A lot of the ads and content only make sense if you are Chinese. The genre may be a global phenomenon, but the content is cultural.

AMD: You see the adoption of the best of what’s global. Some of the most impactful content is generated locally. In S. Africa, they’re delivering online education using local artists to play the roles in Shakespeare, for example. It helps bridge the gap, when they put the content in the context of the people who are consuming it.

Netcore: Advertising on the internet is very small. But searching for jobs is the largest, most profitable Indian portal. In the mobile segment, phone customization, wall paper and ring tones are popular. Part of the Internet use is global, in that they use Google. But there are parts that are India focused.

AMD: While tech develops and costs lower, the definition of access varies. Do you consume content in the way it was intended to be consumed? If you access the internet through your mobile phone, you don’t get the rich content tableau that creates the immersive experience.

IFTF: China has released it’s own set of domain names, which for practical purposes creates a separate internet, rendering those domains in Chinese characters. That has huge implications for how we do business and sell products there. If the Chinese internet indexes different data and shaping a differing world view, that has implications for geopolitics and understanding.

Q: FCC policies were developed with a view to the rest of the world, thinking if the US were ahead, it would push other countries to adopt. What does it take to catalyze a bottom up force?

AMD: We’ve learned that you have to create a sustainable ecosystem, working with people locally on the hardware, logistics, and people who can service the solutions. When you complete a deployment, there has to be a long term plan for local sustainability. Microfinance is one aspect, enabling people to acquire equipment at lower costs or pay as you go.

Netcore: To catalyze growth in India, alternate communication tech like wireless broadband could make a huge difference. Also, providing technology to improve education and literacy.

IFTF: When China moves to mobile connectivity, that will open the internet to the mobile phone users who are a largely different group now.

Q: How is high-speed broadband deployed in China?

IFTF: There is an unusually high number of broadband users, partly because its affordable. Many users get primary access at internet cafes. But the trend is shifting toward internet in the home.

AMD: The persistency of the connection is variable. As connections slow to 8K, they can’t be downloading video or using VoIP.

Netcore: In India, we call it always on narrow band.

Q: How can the outside world have an impact?

AMD: One way is through financing, making microfinancing available. Also, addressing tariff issues that make the devices unaffordable.

Netcore: Two barriers that need to be addressed in India are in telcom industry and in the mobile space.

Q: What makes these places markets of opportunity, and what are the barriers?

IFTF: Recognizing that the internet in china is different, and that will affect marketing. Translation is a huge issue. We need humans in addition to machine translation.

Netcore: Countries like India and China offer huge untapped markets that can be profitable at very low price points. They offer voice at 1 cent a minute. Network management is outsourced. Look at the markets as being in early stages of growth. Spend a few weeks there to understand the opportunities, local business models, and how local culture influences those models.